Akwatia, Eastern Region — August 30, 2025 — A fresh opinion poll by research group Sanity Africa suggests that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Lawyer Bernard Baidoo, is narrowly leading the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Solomon Asumadu in the upcoming Akwatia parliamentary by-election.
The survey, conducted between August 1 and August 27, places Baidoo at 52.3% support among likely voters, compared to Asumadu’s 47.7%, giving the NDC contender a slim lead of just 4.6 percentage points.
The by-election, scheduled for September 2, 2025, was triggered by the passing of sitting NPP MP Ernest Kumi.
Candidate Selection Dynamics
While the NDC held an internal selection process that produced Baidoo, the NPP opted to handpick Asumadu, a prominent figure in the mining sector. According to Sanity Africa, this decision may have generated grassroots discontent within the party — a factor that could influence voter enthusiasm.
Survey Snapshot
- Total registered voters: 52,328
- Sample size: 1,568 (≈3% of electorate)
- Estimated turnout: 48% (≈25,117 voters)
- Polling stations covered: 39 of 119
- Communities covered: 17
Demographic Splits
The survey points to significant voting divides across education and employment lines:
- Graduates: 82.7% support Baidoo (NDC), 17.3% Asumadu (NPP).
- Youth (18–40): 59.6% favour Asumadu.
- Unemployed: 52.7% lean toward Asumadu, reflecting his strength among galamsey-linked communities.
- No formal education: 56% back Asumadu, 44% Baidoo.
Sanity Africa noted that while Baidoo commands the educated vote, Asumadu maintains an advantage among unemployed and informal workers — a bloc that could prove pivotal if voter turnout exceeds expectations.
Turnout Will Decide Outcome
Researchers caution that the outcome may hinge on turnout, projected at just 48% due to political fatigue and heavy security presence.
“In such a closely contested by-election, mobilisation is everything,” the report concluded. “The candidate who best activates their base and overcomes turnout barriers will likely emerge victorious.”
What’s at Stake
For the NDC, a win in Akwatia would bolster its parliamentary strength and build momentum heading into the 2028 general elections. For the NPP, retaining the seat is essential to projecting party unity after unease over Asumadu’s selection.
With just days left, both parties are expected to intensify door-to-door outreach and community mobilisation, as the Akwatia race shapes up to be one of the most fiercely contested by-elections in recent memory.
Historically a swing constituency, Akwatia has alternated between the NDC and NPP over the past two decades — making the September 2 polls a critical test of political strength for both parties.
Source – My News Ghana
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